Source: Fair Observer
The consequences of the murderous actions in Gaza could lead to a war between the USA and Iran – then world war is not far away – an analysis.
Introduction
The Hamas operation on October 7, 2023, was not a terrorist action by bloodthirsty murderers, but a precisely executed military action, as a result of which around 800 Israeli civilians were killed – we have published our research, which is mainly based on Israeli sources. The majority of civilian casualties were caused by the Israelis themselves. The horror stories about decapitated babies and mass rape have vanished into thin air. Nevertheless, the narrative of the USA and Israel has taken root in the minds of people in the West.
The Hamas operation was presented by Israel – and the Western media – as a terrorist attack and sold to the public as a 9/11-like construct. Israel used this narrative as an opportunity to raze Gaza to the ground. This in order to come a step closer to its goal of a Greater Israel “From the river to the sea“.
In December, South Africa appealed to the International Court of Justice to bring this slaughter of civilians to the attention of the world public and to ensure that the killings stop. The decision of the International Court of Justice on January 26, which clearly ordered the Israelis to stop the killings, cannot be overstated in terms of clarity. We have reported on it and analyzed the decision and the deliberations of the International Court of Justice in detail.
Order number 6 of this decision required Israel to submit a report within one month, i.e. by February 26, on measures proving that Israel has stopped the killings and is taking measures to improve the humanitarian situation. Israel has not yet taken these measures and it is obvious that it will not do so in the next two weeks either. On the contrary, Netanyahu rejected a Hamas proposal that included a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages. Netanyahu is thus sticking to his plan to raze Gaza to the ground.
The USA does not care about the genocide. President Biden could end the killing with a phone call by simply telling Prime Minister Netanyahu that financial and military aid to Israel would be stopped. Instead, dozens of transport planes fly from the USA to Israel every day, supplying Israel with weapons and ammunition for the genocide. This makes the USA an accessory.
In this article, we discuss the reactions of the Arab world to the genocide in Gaza and the counter-reaction of the USA. We also try to assess the risks and find out how great the danger is of a further escalation into a regional war that could lead to a world war.
Genocide legitimized by the West
The fact that Israel’s military operation constitutes genocide has been a matter of law since January 26. In its ruling, the International Court of Justice condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza as clearly as was judicially possible in the form of precautionary measures. We have analyzed the ruling and the court’s considerations in detail in an extensive article entitled “International Court of Justice launches nuclear strike against Israel“.
Leading Western media belittled the decision beyond recognition. On January 26 – the day of the decision – the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) published two articles on the subject – the titles alone reveal the NZZ’s cynical attitude: “Genocide complaint: The International Court of Justice demands measures from Israel – but no ceasefire” and “The genocide accusation must be made against Hamas instead of Israel“. Both articles are slavishly following the American and Israeli narratives.
The Palestinians are Arabs
The Palestinians are Arabs and have only been called Palestinians since their expulsion from Palestine.
It is therefore not surprising that many Arab groups and Arab states are standing up for the Palestinians. What is surprising for the West this time, however, is the Arab world’s increasingly consistent stance in support of their Palestinian brothers.
Attacks as a result of the Israeli genocide
The Houthis paralyze traffic in the Red Sea
The Houthis, the freedom fighters in Yemen who are called terrorists by their opponents and have controlled an important part of Yemen for years, announced shortly after October 7 that they would attack Western and Israeli ships in the Red Sea until the killings in Gaza stopped. The USA repeatedly shoots down Yemeni drones, which cost around USD 20,000, with guided missiles that cost millions each. US forces are also constantly bombing targets in Yemen.
The Houthis’ strategy is having a major impact. Recently, the OECD warned of higher transportation costs due to the Red Sea crisis, which could increase the import costs of OECD members by 5 percentage points.
Hezbollah fights Israel in the north
Hezbollah is fighting the Israelis in northern Israel and has an impressive army of well over 100,000 well-trained fighters with a large arsenal of weapons.
“Fighting a real military enemy is much more demanding than bombing crammed civilians in Gaza.”
It was Hezbollah that inflicted the first major military defeat on the Israelis in their history in 2006, when the Israelis attempted to conquer Lebanon in the summer of 2006 under a contrived pretext. After just a few weeks, the Israelis had to withdraw after suffering the biggest military defeat in their history. We reported on this in detail in our Israel series.
Israel has been preparing for another attack by Lebanon since December. Since Israel has fallen prey to the American virus of regularly underestimating its opponents, this could be dangerous for Israel. Fighting a real military enemy is much more demanding than bombing crammed civilians in Gaza.
Iran attacks Israeli interests in Iraq
Iran is considered a logistical and military supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah and other Arab groups. That may be true. However, it is in no way established that Iran also leads these groups. It is also unclear how much influence Tehran has on the military decisions of these groups.
Iran itself has militarily intervened once in this conflict: On January 16, Iran destroyed a Mossad headquarters in Iraq with a precision strike. Furthermore, a huge villa complex belonging to a Kurd was razed to the ground; he is said to have been a Mossad agent.
These two attacks, which were carried out with great precision, were a reaction to the killing of the Iranian politician Razi Mousavi.
Arab militant groups attack US bases
Since October 7, Arab militant groups of various colors have been attacking American bases in Syria and Iraq. Incidentally, the American deployment of soldiers in Syria and Iraq is illegal. This fact has been completely disregarded in the West for years.
On January 28, Arab militants attacked the American military base “Tower 22“. This base is practically on the border between Jordan and Syria. Three American soldiers were killed and around 40 were injured, some of them seriously.
American reactions
Attack on the Houthis
The American attacks against the Houthis are having no effect whatsoever.
Even President Biden openly admitted this. When asked by a journalist on January 16 whether the attacks were having any effect, Biden replied as follows:
“When you say show effect in the sense of stopping the Houthis, no.” – Additional question: “Will you continue?” – Answer Biden: “Yes”.
Attack on Tower 22 as justification for large-scale bombing
The Americans used the attack on Tower-22 as an opportunity to systematically attack targets in Syria and Iraq, which began with an American attack on 85 targets in Iraq and Syria. The attacks continue to this day. It is doubtful that these bombings have had any noticeable effect in curbing the attacks by Arab groups. The intention is probably to show the American electorate – see below – that something is being done.
US warns Tehran via Swiss embassy
The USA warned Iran at the end of January. This was done via the Swiss embassy in Tehran, as the USA has no diplomatic representation in Iran.
Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, commented as follows:
“The president has been very clear from the beginning, when American forces are attacked, we will respond and we’ve responded several times.”
“We intend to take additional strikes and additional action to continue to send a clear message that the United States will respond when our forces are attacked.”
JAKE SULLIVAN – SOURCE: NEW YORK POST
Iran warns the USA
One day after the US warning, Tehran issued a warning to the Americans.
Iran has indicated a firm and immediate response to any US threat to attack its territory. Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian called on Joe Biden’s administration to end the language of threats and focus on political solutions.
Amirabdollahian reiterated that Tehran would respond “promptly and decisively” to all threats, the official IRNA news agency reported.
Iran – Netanyahu’s favorite enemy
If you examine Netanyahu’s statements over the last 30 years, it is fair to say that it is the Israeli prime minister’s dream that Iran will be attacked; not by Israel itself – Israel is too weak militarily for that – but by the USA. Here we refer to an article by “The Intercept” – “Benjamin Netanyahu’s long History of Crying Wolf about Iran’s Nuclear Weapons“.
Typical Netanyahu – warmonger at work at the UN in 2012. – Netanyahu has a personal interest in this crisis turning into a full-scale war.
He is accused of failing to recognize and prevent the Hamas attack on 7 October. In doing so, he gambled away his credibility, as he was tolerated by the people because he prayerfully assured them that he was the only one who could guarantee Israel’s security. Israel’s history shows that when the enemy catches the country by surprise, the leader’s days are numbered. After the Israelis were caught by surprise by the Arabs at the beginning of the 6-Day War, the Israeli people stood behind Golda Meir until the very end of the war – after which she had to resign.
It is not only Netanyahu who is being criticized – the reputation of the Mossad has also suffered. The Mossad has certainly lost its nimbus of being the best secret service in the world.
Incidentally, there are numerous theories circulating about October 7. There is solid evidence that Israel was warned of an attack – by Egypt, among others. This information may have been misinterpreted. However, more cynical opinions are also circulating: Israel expected the attack and let it happen in order to get a pretext to “evacuate” Gaza. It is impossible to say what is true. What is certain, however, is that Israel used October 7 as an opportunity to implement its Greater Israel plans.
Netanyahu therefore needs an escalation to stay at the helm. If there is a war against Iran, his chances of remaining in office are intact.
If the situation eases, Netanyahu will lose his post and then face several corruption charges that could land him in prison.
Israel – under Netanyahu’s leadership – will therefore do everything in its power to involve the Americans in a war with Iran.
What is the risk of escalation?
In my opinion, there are several factors that increase the risk of escalation from an American perspective. I am observing developments with great concern for the following reasons.
“Death and retribution as a campaign tool.”
Election year in the USA
A new president will be elected in the USA this year. Biden, who will probably have to run against Donald Trump, has been showing what kind of man he is since October 7. Death and retribution as a campaign tool. Unfortunately, this works very reliably in the USA.
Israel’s influence in the US
Israel’s influence on politics in the US is by tradition exceptionally high, especially in an election year, as Biden – the weakened, old, senile man in Washington – is increasingly trailing Trump in the polls.
This means that he, or the people who decide for him, will not base their policy towards Iran on common sense and long-term geopolitical goals, but on how he can increase his chances of re-election.
«Bomb away!»
In order to win over pro-Israeli voters to his side, he will take an aggressive stance towards Iran.
Bomb away!
However, it is not only the pro-Israeli forces that are arguing for an aggressive stance towards Iran for electoral reasons. According to Colonel Macgregor, whom I consider to be an extremely competent man, it is very likely that the Americans will be persuaded to attack Iran directly, because around a third of Americans are always in favor of bombing any country designated as an enemy by the Pentagon – in keeping with the motto: “Bomb away!”.
Congress likely to support attack on Iran
The Biden administration no longer feels obliged to obtain the legal basis for military operations from the US Congress, as American presidents have been starting wars without asking Congress since 2001. This has led to continuous war in the Middle East since 9/11 – war without a legal basis.
However, it can be assumed that Congress would be in favor of an attack on Iran at the present time – at least that is what Colonel Macgregor thinks. This adds another element of risk due to the atmosphere in Congress.
Military overconfidence of the USA and warmongers
Another risk factor is the complete arrogance of the Americans when it comes to assessing military risks.
“His panacea: bombing Iran”
Since the Second World War, the Americans have believed that they are invincible and win every war, even though their military successes in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq can be considered pitiful. The complete misjudgement of Russian strength in the Ukraine conflict should also lead to a more cautious approach when it comes to assessing the opponent’s strengths.
The opposite seems to be the case. One of the biggest warmongers in the USA is Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. His panacea: bombing Iran.
Source: Youtube – Fox News – 29. Januar 2024
Senator Graham is just one of many warmongers in the pay of the military-industrial complex that has dominated the USA since the Second World War and has repeatedly led to monstrously bad decisions. The fact that this is by no means a conspiracy theory has been proven since 1961 at the latest, when the retiring US President Ike Eisenhower warned the American people of the power of the military-industrial complex during his farewell speech; however, this did not help.
Considering that the US is in an election year, 30% of Americans generally welcome the bombing of enemy states, that a war would probably be supported by the majority of Congress, that the Americans generally overestimate their own military strength and that the American media are constantly calling for war and retaliation, there is a considerable risk that the Americans will attack Iran directly.
Possible consequences of a US attack on Iran
Iran’s military strength
It is difficult to objectively assess the military strength of countries, as statistics can be manipulated in any direction to achieve the desired result.
According to the website Globalfirepower.com, Iran ranks 14th in terms of military strength, Israel 17th. For comparison: 1st place: USA, 2nd place: Russia, 19th place: Germany, Switzerland: 43rd place.
I would not rely on such statistics under any circumstances.
The real danger to the US is that Iran has been working for many years to have the capacity to destroy US aircraft carriers.
In 2015 – almost 9 years ago – they used the tactic of sending swarms of small boats against aircraft carriers in exercises to overwhelm their defenses. Below, an exercise by the Iranian armed forces against a model of an aircraft carrier.
However, the major threat from Iran in recent times has come from Iranian missiles. The Abu Mahdi missile, which has a range of over 1,000 km, certainly poses a threat to the US Navy. However, as this weapon system has never been used in an emergency, its effect is unknown.
Iran is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS+
Since January 1, 2024, Iran has been a member of BRICS, together with Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt. We have reported extensively on this organization on this blog – here is an overview: “BRICS will change the world – slowly“. This organization is economic in nature, but also brings the member countries very close together politically.
Much more important, however, is the fact that Iran became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in July 2023. In addition to Iran, the following countries are members: China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan. This organization unites 40% of the world’s population, making it the largest regional organization in the world. Among other things, this organization deals with security issues of its members. That is a vague term. It is not an organization like NATO, which focuses exclusively on security and has anchored military assistance obligations among its members in its charter.
The fact that the SCO receives little attention in the West is once again due to the condescending attitude of the West. However, the admission of Iran to the SCO should not be underestimated. It is very possible that China and Russia will provide Iran with their missiles and the technology for them. This would completely change the tide in terms of strength against US facilities in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers.
Both the Chinese and the Russians have missiles that would allow Iran to reach and destroy any target in the Middle East. For example with the Chinese Dong Feng (DF-26) and the Russian 3m22 Zircon. Both weapons are suitable for combating aircraft carriers. Zircon flies at speeds of up to Mach 8 and was successfully deployed in Ukraine. If such weapons are used against the US fleet, this could end disastrously for the USA.
Conclusion
The attacks by various Arab groups against Israeli and American targets in the Middle East are a consequence of the attacks on the civilian population in Gaza by Israel, which were declared illegal by the International Court of Justice on January 26, 2024.
“It is time for everyone to sit down at the same table – as long as there is negotiation, there is no shooting at each other.”
The Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Netanyahu has no intention of stopping these attacks, but is not only continuing to pursue its goal of an Israel “from the river to the sea”, but is also trying to involve the USA in a direct military conflict with Iran – a plan that Netanyahu has been pursuing for 30 years.
So far, the American attacks on targets in Yemen, Iraq and Syria have had no effect whatsoever. Shipping traffic in the Red Sea for Western shipping is in danger of coming to a complete standstill and attacks on US bases are continuing.
The combination of the election campaign, the willingness of the US Congress to go to war against Iran, the tendency of the USA to regularly underestimate its opponents and the great influence of Israel on American foreign policy leads to an increased risk of a direct conflict between Iran and the USA.
Should the USA attack Iran directly, Iran’s economic (BRICS) and security policy (SCO) proximity to China and Russia means that there is a risk that Iran, which already has a considerable arsenal of weapons itself, will receive technology and/or weapons systems from China and Russia that could cause serious damage to the US Navy.
If the risks outlined here become a reality, a regional war is certain, with the potential for consequences that no sensible person would want to imagine.
It is time for everyone to sit down at the same table – as long as there is negotiation, there is no shooting at each other.