Juba is uneasy. Walk the streets and you’ll hear whispers of war. People are nervous, watching events unfold as though waiting for the first gunshot to mark the beginning of something worse than
they have ever lived through. Everyone knows it’s coming. It’s just a question of when. Germany has already closed its embassy, an ominous sign of what’s to come, and other diplomatic missions are likely to follow. The embassies always leave first, then the NGOs, and finally, the journalists—before the real bloodshed begins.
South Sudan has never truly known peace. The 2018 deal that ended the last civil war was always a fragile arrangement, more of a ceasefire than a lasting resolution. Now, the cracks are widening. Political rivalries, tribal grievances, and economic collapse have combined to create a perfect storm. If it ignites, it could be even more catastrophic than anything the country has seen before. South Sudan is increasingly looking like a ticking time bomb, and time is running out.
The Historical Backdrop: A Cycle of Bloodshed
To understand why South Sudan is teetering on the edge once again, one must look back at its tortured history. Independence in 2011 was a moment of celebration, but the unity barely lasted two years before the country descended into civil war in 2013. The conflict, driven by a power struggle between President Salva Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar, led to atrocities on an unimaginable scale. Famine, mass rape, and ethnic massacres became the norm. By the time a peace agreement was brokered in 2018, the war had claimed nearly 400,000 lives.
But peace was a mirage. The country remained divided along tribal and political lines, with violence never truly disappearing. Armed militias have continued to operate with impunity, corruption has drained state resources, and a staggering humanitarian crisis has unfolded. Now, the country is staring down another disaster. The political tensions that sparked the 2013 war have resurfaced, but this time, the conflict is set to explode on a larger scale. There is no immediate prospect of true reconciliation, and the country’s leadership has failed to resolve even the most basic issues of governance.
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Juba: A Divided City Trying to Move Forward
Juba is booming. At least, on the surface. The capital has changed in ways unimaginable even a decade ago. Fancy new hotels stand where rubble once was. Rooftop bars offer expensive cocktails. Wealthy businessmen and politicians—many of them warlords in suits—drive through the city in bulletproof Land Cruisers. There is money here, but it is concentrated in the hands of a select few. And everyone else? They watch from the sidelines, knowing that all it would take is another war to send everything crashing down.
Juba’s nightlife is vibrant, but also painfully segregated. There are bars where foreigners and the South Sudanese elite sip imported whiskey, oblivious to the growing resentment outside their high walls. Then there are the street-side stalls where the average South Sudanese can afford a beer, talking in hushed voices about the latest killings, the latest disappearances. The divide is clear: the haves and the have-nots. The powerful and the forgotten. The ones who will profit when the war comes, and the ones who will die in it. But what most locals say is that they don’t have a choice—they are living in a bubble of luxury that could collapse at any moment.
Residents of Juba are increasingly feeling unnerved. Many tell stories of things not being right, but also how they still try to go on with life. People frequent the bars and eateries, but there’s an unspoken tension in the air. There’s an underlying sense that something major is about to erupt, but in a city that is rapidly modernizing, it feels almost absurd. Despite the looming crisis, South Sudan’s capital is a place where hopes of prosperity linger, though many now question whether that is just another illusion in a fragile and unstable system.
The Peace Industrial Complex: A Farce of International Aid
Ask any ordinary South Sudanese about the UN and international NGOs, and the response is almost always the same: disbelief, anger, and a deep sense of betrayal. Billions have been pumped into the country, yet the people see no real benefit. The so-called “peace process” has become an industry in itself, with foreign consultants, diplomats, and aid workers living comfortable lives while doing little to actually prevent the next war.
The United Nations has stationed thousands of troops here, yet they are powerless. Their blue helmets are supposed to symbolize protection, but in reality, they are little more than expensive bystanders. When violence erupts, they stay behind their compounds, too afraid to intervene. Meanwhile, Juba’s
growing prostitution industry thrives off the back of foreign aid workers, with many locals questioning what organizations like Israel Aid are truly here to accomplish. What is their end goal? Are they here to help, or simply trying to curry favour for their respective governments and ideologies.
The aid money meant for development instead fuels corruption. Government officials embezzle millions, warlords use foreign funds to arm militias, and crime flourishes under the cover of “peacekeeping” efforts. The entire system stinks. The compounds where the UN and NGOs operate have become metaphorical—and literal—cesspits, filled with people who claim to be solving problems but are, in reality, just cashing in on South Sudan’s misery. Donors claim they’re bringing peace, but all they’ve brought is a bloated industry that fails the very people it’s meant to protect.
The Great Betrayal: Foreign Interests and South Sudan’s Future
South Sudan’s struggle has long been a battleground for international interests. The country’s oil wealth is a prized asset, and foreign governments and multinational corporations have used the conflict as an opportunity to exploit the nation’s resources. China, Russia, and the West all have their hands in the cookie jar. But as the war looms once more, none of these powers seem interested in peace. Instead, they profit from instability, profiting off oil contracts, weapons sales, and the continued exploitation of
a country too weak to defend itself.
It is often said that foreign powers, especially those with vested economic interests, have done little to actually mediate peace in South Sudan. Instead, they have simply waited for a return to
stability that benefits them economically. This betrayal has not gone unnoticed by ordinary South Sudanese citizens, who see little change in their daily lives except for the gradual decline of their
country into chaos. While the world talks of peace and diplomacy, people on the ground wonder when the world will finally care about what’s happening to them.
A War That the World Will Ignore
The collapse of South Sudan’s fragile peace is no longer a question of possibility—it is a certainty. The political elites have made it clear that they have no interest in a true reconciliation. Ethnic divisions have become more pronounced, and the military factions that were once restrained by the 2018 peace deal
are now rearming. Once the fighting starts, it will be merciless. And just like before, the world will hardly
notice.
Look at Sudan. The war there has raged on with horrific consequences, yet outside of the region, there is barely a whisper of concern. South Sudan will be no different. The headlines will flash briefly, foreign embassies will issue their evacuation notices, and then silence will follow. Another African nation torn apart by war, while the world looks away.
For those in Juba, the fear is suffocating. They know what is coming. They have lived through it before. And this time, it might be even worse. South Sudan’s future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the international community’s indifference will only make the crisis worse. When the war comes, it will likely be just another tragedy the world forgets until it’s too late.