If you believe the UN sub-organization IPCC and the state and corporate media, then since 1850 or 1950 only humans are responsible for the changes of the climate. Sun, planets, celestial mechanics, solar magnetic fields or cosmic rays, which were responsible for the climate on earth for 4.5 billion years alone, have stopped working. Only the CO2 from the exhaust or from the production of cement has an effect on the climate and of course only in one direction, namely warming. However, the sciences needed for this are only economics and political science. Let’s look at what the natural sciences have to say in contrast.
Since ancient times, the motions of the planets in the solar system have attracted the interest of astronomers, philosophers, and natural scientists such as Pythagoras, Kepler, and Newton, because the periods of the orbits seem to be connected by simple harmonic proportions, resonances, and/or ratios. Thus the mutual influences are also considerable. The manifold solar cycles cannot be explained by purely local parameters, just like the climate change on earth.
These interactions and their mathematical formulations are addressed in a review article in Frontiers by Nicola Scafetta and Antonio Bianchini entitled “The Planetary Theory of Solar Activity Variability: A Review.” The prediction of a Little Ice Age beginning in 2030 is consistent with that of many other scientists, as well as with the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center’s forecast of sunspots.
The authors write introductively:
“ The high synchronization of our planetary system is already nicely revealed by the fact that the ratios of the planetary orbital radii are closely related to each other through a scaling-mirror symmetry equation (Bank and Scafetta, Front. Astron. Space Sci. 8, 758184, 2022). Reviewing the many planetary harmonics and the orbital invariant inequalities that characterize the planetary motions of the solar system from the monthly to the millennial time scales, we show that they are not randomly distributed but clearly tend to cluster around some specific values that also match those of the main solar activity cycles. In some cases, planetary models have even been able to predict the time-phase of the solar oscillations including the Schwabe 11-year sunspot cycle. We also stress that solar models based on the hypothesis that solar activity is regulated by its internal dynamics alone have never been able to reproduce the variety of the observed cycles. Although planetary tidal forces are weak, we review a number of mechanisms that could explain how the solar structure and the solar dynamo could get tuned to the planetary motions. In particular, we discuss how the effects of the weak tidal forces could be significantly amplified in the solar core by an induced increase in the H-burning. Mechanisms modulating the electromagnetic and gravitational large-scale structure of the planetary system are also discussed.“
The movement of the sun
Since Isaac Newton we know that the sun does not stand still, but moves around the center of gravity of the solar system. Or differently expressed: One puts the origin of the coordinate system for all movements in the solar system in its center of mass, the barycenter.
The complex dynamics of the planetary system can be described by a general harmonic model. Any general function of the planetary orbits – such as their barycentric distance, their velocity, their angular momentum, etc. – must have a common frequency group with that of the solar motion.
Figures A and B show the positions and velocities of the wobbling Sun with respect to the barycenter of the planetary system. (A) describes the observed and calculated motion of the wobbling Sun from 1944 (center-right bottom) to 2020 (center-left top), (B) the distance and velocity of the Sun relative to the solar system barycenter from 1800 to 2020.
In (A) also the dimensions are drawn. With the bright yellow solar disk (Sun’s disk) with a radius of 696,342 km (diameter thus scarcely 1.4 million km) we recognize the surface in which the sun moves approximately 6 times 6 million kilometers. Since the earth, like all other planets, also moves around the barycenter, the sun-earth distance also changes continuously. This data agrees well with the Zharkova 2019 study, which was attacked by IPCC solar deniers and then retracted by Nature Research without factual justification.
The solar cycles
Solar activity is characterized by several cycles, such as the 11-year Schwabe cycle, the 22-year Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle (∼85 years), the Jose cycle (∼178 years), the Suess-de Vries cycle (∼208 years), the Eddy cycle (∼1000 years), and the Bray-Hallstatt cycle (∼2300 years). Shorter cycles are easily detected in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and sunspot records, while longer cycles are found in long-term geophysical records such as cosmic ray records of radionuclides (14C and 10Be) and climate records.
Solar cycles generated by planetary feedbacks naturally affect the Earth’s climate, as can be seen nicely in the temporal correspondence of the last 2000 years:
Figure B compares a mathematical representation of the three-frequency Jupiter-Saturn model with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction of Ljungqvist (2010) (black). The good temporal agreement between the oscillations of the model and the temperature records of both the millennial and 115-year modulations is striking, and is further emphasized by the smoothed filtered curves at the bottom of the figure. The Roman Warm Period (RWP), Dark Age Cold Period (DACP), Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and Current Warm Period (CWP) are well reproduced by the three-frequency Jupiter-Saturn model.
The prediction of the little ice age from 2030 onwards
Scafetta (2012a) discussed other features of the three-frequency solar model. For example, five 59-63-year cycles appear in the period 1850-2150, which are also well correlated with global surface temperature maxima around 1880, 1940, and 2000.
The model also predicts a major solar minimum – and thus a minor ice age – around the 2030s, sandwiched between two major solar maxima around 2000 and 2060. The modeled solar minimum around 1970, the maximum around 2000, and the subsequent decline in solar activity predicted into the 2030s are in good agreement with Zharkova’s predictions and sunspot data from the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center (part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Finally, the model also reproduces a fairly long Schwabe solar cycle of about 15 years between 1680 and 1700.
The article by Scafetta and Barachini is quite interesting to read, even if it becomes quite mathematical in some parts. However, the physics behind it is always explained in a well understandable way.
(Images from WikiImages on Pixabay)
For German speakers, the German language version of the author’s article can be found here.