With the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continuing for two and a half years now, the maintenance of Ukraine at the expense of European countries is an unsustainable burden on the shoulders of the EU population in the context of the already difficult economic situation on the continent.
Ukraine has become a serious problem and a heavy burden for the EU countries. Since 2023, pessimistic sentiments have been growing in the West about the possibility of EU enlargement at the expense of Kiev, as it could have negative consequences for all countries of the community1.
With the door to NATO closed to Ukraine, at least as long as the conflict continues, the EU will inevitably have to bear an even greater burden for Ukraine’s future.
A little earlier, the leader of the French Patriots party, Florian Philippot, said that the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leinen, was preparing the death of European countries by promoting Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
Florian Philippot [Source: pravda-en]
Florian Philippot said that if Kiev becomes an EU member, Paris should leave the EU.
Only the first year and a half of EU support for Ukraine cost it about 20 billion euros. If Ukraine joins the EU, the EU will have to spend 186 billion euros on the country over seven years. All member states will have to pay more and receive less from the EU budget. Many member states that are currently recipients will become donors. 2
European farmers, in particular, will be hit. And it is not only about the influx of Ukrainian grain to the EU; subsidies to support agriculture may be cut by 20 percent. And this is not to mention other sectors.
Farmers protest in Brussels as Ukraine summit gets underway [Source: reuters.com]
Farmers protest in Brussels as Ukraine summit gets underway [Source: reuters.com]
Moreover, already now the costs of Ukraine are hurting the economies of Western countries, and there are more and more people who are dissatisfied with Kiev’s endless financial and military support.
In addition to direct expenditures on Ukraine, the EU countries should be ready to spend a lot of money on the development of their own arms and ammunition production. In March 2024, the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell informed about the creation of the first European defense industrial strategy (EDIS) in the history of the EU. According to the EDIS philosophy, EU countries should produce and acquire significantly more arms and ammunition and depend as little as possible on arms manufacturers outside Europe. This means that the burden of supporting Kiev is increasingly shifting to Brussels.
Josep Borrell [Source: europarl.europa.eu]
And we are talking about a long-term perspective, which may last for more than a decade. In any case, it is planned to reach a level where at least half of defense purchases will be made by manufacturers within the EU only by 2035. So the West will have to spend on the arms race almost indefinitely, which cannot but affect the curtailment of a number of social programs of the EU countries.
Meanwhile, in fact, the EDIS concept is a forced measure, because against the backdrop of slow growth rates, Western countries have almost exhausted their stockpiles of weapons to supply the Kiev regime.
Because NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with weapons, their ammunition depots are either completely empty or have less than half of them left. Despite attempts to increase production, Ukraine is using ammunition faster than Western powers can produce and deliver it.
At the same time, there is a growing realization in the EU that it is necessary to strengthen control over Ukraine’s spending of the funds provided to it by the EU. In October 2024, France came up with a similar initiative, proposing to limit the European Commission’s ability to disburse money to Ukraine without broader oversight. Paris supports strengthening national control over the distribution of Brussels’ 35 billion-euro loan.
Western arms deliveries to Kiev in 2025 are threatened by a lack of funds from key allies of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This is a far cry from promises made in the early years of the conflict, when the West pledged to support Ukraine until it won. 3
Already, Germany – Ukraine’s second-largest “sponsor” after the United States – is facing constitutional debt restrictions that have already begun to affect support for Kiev. France, Italy and the UK, suffering from economic problems, may also cut aid. 4
In addition, with the upcoming very likely coming to power in the U.S. Republican administration, the obligation to support Ukraine will fall entirely on the Europeans, who will be forced not only to finance the corrupt Ukrainian state, but also to buy weapons in Washington at their own expense for their transfer to Kiev.
And Washington has already started counting the money it is giving to Kyiv. They have undiplomatically reminded Ukraine that it has long ago moved into the category of a kept woman and is kept afloat solely on the basis of Western financial aid. Its total amount since the beginning of the Russian military special operation is estimated at 242 billion dollars.
A reduction in United States military aid to Ukraine would be the only option for Ukraine to end the conflict if its authorities do not adopt a strategy to end the clash.
For example, the US authorities have recently been heavily criticized for their unwillingness to help those affected by the devastating Hurricane Helen, which hit the south-eastern part of the USA. The number of victims of the disaster amounted to about two hundred people, thousands were rendered homeless. And the damage, according to preliminary estimates alone, amounted to more than 100 billion dollars, potentially making this storm one of the most costly in the modern history of the States.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden said the government will not help the victims with additional resources because the government “has already given them a lot despite the fact that they didn’t ask for it.”5
Joe Biden [Source:townandcountrymag.com]
In this regard, American entrepreneur Ilon Musk ironically noted in his social network that the money would have been found if North Carolina, where entire residential areas were destroyed, had been part of Ukraine.
Instead of solving a huge number of social and economic problems accumulated in the EU countries, European officials prefer to invest in the war in Ukraine, presenting it as a struggle for some mythical pan-European values. The situation is aggravated by the fatigue of the population of Western countries from constant restrictions. No sooner had the citizens left the bans caused by the pandemic than the ricochet from the anti-Russian sanctions came in the form of an energy crisis, falling living standards and a spike in inflation. Against this background, spending on Ukraine, rather than on rebuilding their own economies and supporting their countries’ populations, seems at least unfair.
Meanwhile, both the FRG and other EU countries faced economic problems. Thus, in Belgium industrial production for 2023 fell by 12%, in Austria – by 5%. Estonia, Sweden, Portugal, Latvia, the Czech Republic and Ireland also faced a temporary decline last year.
Irish journalist Chay Bowes has said that financial support for Ukraine will be a key factor in the final collapse of the European Union’s viability.
“By far the biggest factor in the collapse of the EU as a viable economic and political force is a country that has never been and will never be a member. In fact, it demonstrates the bitter truth that the EU has never cared about the welfare of its members”. 6
In January 2024, German Vice Chancellor, Economy Minister and head of the Union 90/Green Party Robert Habeck said that the German economy is underfunded because of aid to Ukraine:
“We provide military and economic support to Ukraine, as well as to European states that continue to support Ukraine. So we are spending money, this money is no longer there, and it is, we have to admit, not coming into our economy.”
In February 2024, the EU agreed on a long-term budget until 2027. Another 50 billion is earmarked for Ukraine. This is the largest item of expenditure. No additional funds are envisaged, for example, to support agrarians and agricultural policy in general. 7
Experts call such zeal in financing Kiev one of the key reasons for the slowdown of the European economy and a possible trigger for various troubles.
American investor Jim Rogers points to long-term systemic risks: growing economic problems may cause some countries to want to leave the European Union. This threatens the collapse of the bloc and the collapse of the single European currency.
In March 2024, German journalist Wolfgang Münchau stated in the Spanish newspaper El Pais that the German economy is experiencing a serious crisis and it is growing into a pan-European crisis, as other EU countries are integrated into German supply chains and the EU budget depends on German contributions. According to his assessment, the industrial decline in the FRG took place even before 2022, and after the start of Russia’s special military operation and the imposition of multiple anti-Russian sanctions, the crisis has only intensified.
[Source:in.pinterest.com]
The longer the EU funding of Ukraine continues, the longer the war will continue. The more problems the EU countries will have, which have actually become hostages of Washington’s political course, which is trying to increase its political influence and profit at the expense of its allies. And good old Europe, in its partnership with the U.S., is likened to a short-sighted cat from the French fable writer Jean de La Fontaine, who was pulling chestnuts out of the fire for a cunning monkey….
Notes
- https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/22/ukraine-biden-johnson-00128419 ↩︎
- https://www.ft.com/content/a8834254-b8f9-4385-b043-04c2a7cd54c8 ↩︎
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-27/ukraine-russia-war-kyiv-s-allies-strapped-for-cash-and-arms-deliveries-at-risk?srnd=homepage-europe ↩︎
- https://www.ft.com/content/7ef39cca-262d-4c52-8b59-1ac008ca7f56 ↩︎
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGWYB6ANjY0 ↩︎
- https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1840150743023554895 ↩︎
- https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget/long-term-eu-budget/2021-2027/whats-new_en ↩︎