The path to a new world war is being taken in small steps. On their own, they are not perceived for what they are – mosaic stones that pave the way to hell. Analysis.
In this article, we try to grasp the increasingly complex geopolitical situation, assess the resulting trends and finally categorize the threat situation. This is a long article, which is very demanding because it contains a large number of facts and considerations. Nevertheless, I could not describe all aspects and had to make a selection – also by omission. I worked on it for over a week and during the writing process the article was constantly overtaken by new circumstances. The article is therefore only a snapshot of today, April 17, 2024.
In a first step, we briefly describe what we consider to be the most important individual developments, which, like pieces of a mosaic, supplement the picture that prevailed until recently. In a second step, we discuss the possible immediate consequences of these developments, before assessing the overall situation in the third part. We hope that this approach will allow us to draw stringent conclusions, but we are aware that new developments can immediately change the overall picture.
The mosaic stones of recent weeks
Crokus City – Terror attack
On March 22, a group of five men carried out a terrorist attack on the Crokus City Hall (https://crocus-hall.ru/) near the MKAD ring road in Moscow. Over 140 people were killed and a further 130 were injured. One of the perpetrators was arrested at the scene of the crime. The remaining four terrorists, who fled in the same car in which they had arrived, were arrested the next morning with seven other men about 380 km from Moscow near the Ukrainian border. In the meantime, some of the masterminds were also arrested.
On March 7, the American embassy in Moscow published a warning of a terrorist attack that would take place in the next 48 hours. This did not happen – the attack did not take place until March 22. Minutes after the attack, the USA announced that it had nothing to do with it and that Ukraine’s involvement could also be ruled out. ISIS was behind it.
Israel attacks Iranian soil
This was followed on April 1 by an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus. The airstrike destroyed the consulate building and killed at least seven officials, including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), an elite unit of the Iranian armed forces, and senior commander Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
Iran strikes back – and another blow from Israel seems to be just around the corner
On Sunday night, Iran struck back and attacked Israel with over 300 drones and missiles.
Although military targets were targeted, hardly any were deliberately destroyed. Iran’s main aim was probably to demonstrate its capabilities in a forceful manner. Iran says this is the end of the matter if Israel does not retaliate. Today, however, it seems that the Israelis feel compelled to attack Iran directly. The USA is countering this, but it is unlikely to have any effect.
UN no longer has any influence on world affairs
The UN Security Council has adopted a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan, the immediate and unconditional release of the hostages and “the urgent need to expand the flow” of aid to the Gaza Strip. The resolution was adopted by 14 votes, with the United States abstaining. Nothing has happened.
Israel deliberately kills members of aid organizations and perpetuates genocide
Seven employees of the non-profit food aid organization World Central Kitchen were killed in an Israeli attack in the Gaza Strip on the night of 2 April. The Israeli authorities “believed” that a Hamas leader was in one of the vehicles and called it a “mistake”. Outcry in the West? – Not a chance.
Janet Yellen warns China
On her trip to China, which lasted several days, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned and threatened China on two different levels: On the one hand, Yellen criticized the “overproduction” of Chinese industry, which was harming the US. On the other hand, China must stop this.
On the other hand, Janet Yellen complained about China’s cooperation with Russia.
President Macron plays the strongman
The President of France, which lost its last colonies in Africa within a very short space of time and naturally blames the Russians, plays the strong man in an almost grotesque manner.
It is doubtful whether he will impress the Russians with this picture, but at the same time as publishing this photo-shopped work of art, he announced that he would send French troops – sometimes he talks of 2,000, then of 20,000 – to Ukraine, primarily to protect Odessa.
David Cameron campaigns for war in Brussels and Washington
In Brussels, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron tried to mobilize the NATO countries for the fight against Putin. Here is his short video from Brussels:
In one of his latest appeals in Washington, he said that Ukraine could and must win the war. It only needs the help of the USA and the NATO countries, as Russia is suffering huge losses.
NATO’s 75th … a Foreign Ministers’ meeting … and what needs to happen next pic.twitter.com/bvat4wu84C
— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) April 4, 2024
David Cameron, 4. April in Brüssel
In one of his latest appeals in Washington, he said that Ukraine could and must win the war. It only needs the help of the USA and the NATO countries, as Russia is suffering huge losses.
This is the struggle of our generation.
— Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (@FCDOGovUK) April 11, 2024
Ukraine can win this war and achieve a just peace. But we must all, Americans and Europeans alike, do more.
The outcome is down to us.
🇬🇧🇺🇸🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/FnYBxAEuIk
David Cameron, 11. April in Washington
Smoldering fire in the Moldova
The smouldering fire in Moldova is not being noticed. René Zittlau has written an excellent article on this (“The Republic of Moldova at a crossroads – Western or neutral or perhaps no longer at all?“). The instability in Moldova will allow France, for example, to station its troops there and harass the small and isolated Russian troop contingent in Transnistria – another new source of unrest.
Swiss Peace Conference
In June, Switzerland is hosting a peace conference on Ukraine. The Swiss Federal Council appears to be working on the instructions of President Selenski. 100 nations are to take part. China has not yet confirmed its participation and Russia has not been invited. This is bound to backfire and is another sign that Switzerland has once again completely misjudged the geopolitical situation and its forces.
Escalation hotspot Russia – NATO
Crocus City – Terror attack
Those behind this attack will pay a high price. President Putin already said this on March 23. The Russian authorities are investigating the case meticulously and new people are being arrested almost daily. Russia assumes that Ukraine is behind the attack and that the secret services MI6 and CIA are therefore also involved. Statements by Victoria Nuland and Mark Milley indicate that the USA – at least secretly – welcomed the attack:
The statements of the recently resigned (better: dumped) Victoria Nuland do not point to direct US involvement in the Crocus attack, but they do speak volumes: Nuland promised “some nasty surprises” awaiting the Kremlin in the Ukraine war.
Publicist Jimmy Dore, citing Tony Schaeffer, suggests that Victoria Nuland was probably behind the attack and lost her job over the matter. That may be true, but we don’t know.
Publicist Jimmy Dore said that Nuland did not leave on her own, she was fired. And one of the reasons for leaving was precisely the fact that she orchestrated a terrible terrorist attack in Moscow.
— Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil (@ivan_8848) March 28, 2024
One of the reasons she left is because she was planning this provocation with… pic.twitter.com/F2GAjxRQJN
Not a lightweight, but the former, highly decorated Chief of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley, who never had any real contact with the enemy, called for terror against Russia shortly before his resignation on December 4, 2023. Note not only the content but also the tone of his statement:
“There should be no Russian who goes to sleep without wondering if they’re going to get their throat slit in the middle of the night,” Milley said, according to an official with knowledge of the event. “You gotta get back there, and create a campaign behind the lines.”WASHINGTON POST, DECEMBER 4, 2023
Russia’s warfare is changing
Since February 2022, Russia has refrained from attacking Ukraine’s leadership and infrastructure. This restraint is history. Those behind the attack in Moscow are being identified and liquidated. Yesterday there was a rumor that Kyrylo Budanov, the director of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, had been killed in a Russian attack; whether this is true or not is not yet clear. I don’t know whether President Zelensky will also belong to this group. The Kremlin will make this decision behind closed doors. Mr. Zelensky himself knows best whether and to what extent he was involved.
Terror is used when other means fail. It is regularly an act of desperation to damage an opponent who cannot be defeated by normal means – in this case military means. In our opinion, Ukraine has been militarily finished since last September, but certainly since the fall of Avdievka.
The aim of terror is to terrify the affected population, weaken society and change it for the worse. 9/11 is the best example of what such a bloodbath can do to a society: No event in this century has changed a society and life in the West more negatively.
The terrorist attack on visitors to the Crocus shopping and entertainment center in northwest Moscow was inhumane, but will not have the effect on society that the planners hoped for. Russians were not frightened by it, they are angry. I live in Moscow – neither the street scene, the number of security forces nor the attitude of Russians has changed since the attack. I walk for two hours every day and see fewer police than in Zurich.
Military situation
If you look at the military situation on the long frontline, the disintegration of the Ukrainian army has accelerated since the fall of Avdievka. Russian troops are advancing slowly but steadily along the entire front.
The Russian armed forces are concentrating their attacks with FAB bombs, missiles and drones next to the front line on industrial facilities in Kharkov, Odessa and other places that are vital to the war effort, with the power supply in Kharkov already failing completely at times. On four-lane highways, images can be seen of Kharkov residents leaving the city in three of the four lanes. It seems that Kharkov could become the next big target.
Odessa is also being attacked more intensively. The main target in and around the big cities is the energy supply.
The war seems to have been decided. We wrote back in September that Ukraine was militarily finished. However, this does not mean that the fighting has stopped. The dying can go on for a long time.
The Russians are bracing themselves for a long conflict
The West smiles at the speed of the Russian advance and interprets this as weakness. However, a slow, steady approach saves material and, above all, spares the lives of its own soldiers. That is what matters to Russia. Russia has prepared itself for a long military conflict and is running a program that is broadly supported and coordinated by the population, the economy, the arms industry and the soldiers, and is supported by society. This is demonstrated not least by the influx of volunteers for the army, which has risen to up to 40,000 per month since the terrorist attack on Crocus Hall, making mobilization unnecessary.
Die Ukraine wird militärisch immer schwächer
The Ukrainian armed forces, on the other hand, are short of personnel, weapons and ammunition and the losses are said to be horrendous. In some cases, air defense has come to a complete standstill. The wonder weapon “Patriot” did not help much. It was found and destroyed by the Russians. The system has two major shortcomings: firstly, the costs are horrendous: a system costs around USD 1.1 billion and a single missile between USD 3.4 and USD 8 million. “Patriot” appears to be powerless against hypersonic missiles; not only does the system date back to the last century, it also looks “old” in the literal sense of the word in terms of missile technology. The consequence of this is that European countries are now increasingly refusing to send further Patriot systems to Ukraine, according to the Financial Times.
French and English want to intervene
The French and the British could each provide a maximum of around 20,000 soldiers, which according to experts would not change the balance of military forces. Alexander Mercouris stated that the UK has a total of around 40 operational tanks.
Since 2022, the Western states have not only completely underestimated the Russians, but also completely overestimated the Ukrainian armed forces equipped with Western weapons. It should be remembered that the Ukrainian army has been trained by NATO since 2014 and has adopted and implemented its tactics – with disastrous results.
For his part, President Putin has told President Macron that if France were to officially send troops to Ukraine – French soldiers are already unofficially in Ukraine – they would be hunted down as a priority target. This would make France a party to the war and Russia would be free to attack targets in France if necessary.
Russian superiority over NATO
Russia’s military superiority, not only over Ukraine but also over NATO as a whole, seems to be a fact. Russia has already prepared its armed forces, its industry, its entire economy and indeed its entire society for a long war. Russia is managing to do this with a sharply rising gross national product.
I would like to refer you to two excellent interviews that describe the Russian art of war, the entire military doctrine and Russia’s holistic involvement in the war. Both interviews can be found on the “Duran” channel:
Andrei Martyanov – «Russia and war as a continuation of politics»
Jaques Baud «Russian Art of War».
These two excellent interviews with real experts – both of whom have dealt with Russian military structures in depth on a professional basis – reveal a reality that the West urgently needs to come to terms with. Western decisions are based on wishful thinking and not on facts. For this reason, all predictions made by Western politicians and media about the course of the war since 2022 have always been wrong. Our little blog is constantly amazed by this fact. The NZZ – Switzerland’s leading media outlet – has 240 journalists and an excellent research infrastructure. For me, it is beyond the realms of possibility that this huge team is incapable of gathering the facts. It is therefore clear that the leading Western media are deliberately misinforming the public. This has fatal consequences for the Swiss population, who believe their leading media: They believe the image conveyed to them of the “evil Russia”, which is on the brink of the abyss and is harassing its own population: The reality is diametrically different. We already exposed the NZZ’s propaganda in December 2022 in our article “Resist the beginnings – Propaganda of the NZZ” and analyzed it.
Israel oversteps further borders – the USA watches and supports
Killing of members of aid organization worsens Israel’s image
The targeted killing of members of aid organizations will result in a further decline in support for Israel in the West. However, the official reactions from Western countries have been more than weak, which will strengthen the Israelis in their policy.
Genocide as a normal form of warfare
The West is trying to sell the genocide of the Palestinians to its citizens as normal warfare. In the Western media, one searches in vain for the word “genocide” in connection with Israel’s actions. Even the decision of the International Court of Justice, which could not have been clearer, is played down in reporting and ignored in politics. Instead, the Western media report on anti-Semitism spreading in the West. In doing so, they deliberately mix up terms that do not belong together. We explained this problem in our article “Judaism, Zionism, anti-Semitism and Israel: misuse of terms“.
As a consequence of all this, the genocide committed by Israel is covered up with anti-Semitism debates. To my great surprise, this seems to work for most people in the West.
Israel’s attitude that the rules of international law only apply to others has been a recurring theme throughout the history of this young country since 1948. We have detailed this in our major series “Israel – from victim to perpetrator to victim – a back and forth for 80 years“. Israel’s behavior towards the inhabitants of Gaza leaves us speechless and the fact that Israel deliberately uses genocide – to put it bluntly, the extermination of a people or at least large parts of it – as a means to achieve its goals, ignoring decisions of the International Court of Justice and even the UN Security Council, is deeply disturbing.
USA undermines the UN Security Council
Even the UN Security Council is being ignored by the Israelis. This is only possible because it plays into the hands of US interests and they allow it.
The fact that the Americans are watching the genocide, nota bene carried out with American weapons, makes the Americans look cynical – and rightly so. President Biden allows this to happen because he cannot dare to run his presidential campaign against the support of the Israel lobby. What applies to Biden is no different for Trump. No one should therefore expect anything to change in Israel policy after the US elections.
Support for Israel essential for the USA
However, the USA also sees support for Israel as essential in geopolitical terms. American power in the Middle East has been waning step by step since the fall of the Shah in 1979. The major war plans after 2001 have also all failed. The new BRICS members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt are increasingly coordinating their policies with China and Russia, which is becoming an increasingly obvious new political and economic reality in the Middle East.
The situation is critical for the USA. We highlighted the development of US power in the Middle East in our article “Bloodbaths change the world – Part 2 – 9/11“. Here are two maps from this article, based on the saying “Pictures speak volumes”:
The coloring in these two maps shows tendencies and is therefore not absolute.
The fact that the USA abstained from voting in the above-mentioned UN Security Council resolution and did not vote no is an indication of the Americans’ fear of losing not only all their power in the Middle East, but also their last drop of goodwill – with good reason, as a glance at the maps above shows.
Israeli strike followed by counter-strike
The attack on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus is legally an attack on Iran, as embassies are attributed to the respective country’s territory under international law.
Iran’s retaliatory strike at the weekend can be described as a proportionate response. Iran also announced after the attack that this was the end of the matter for it.
The initial threats of a further response from Israel became quieter again, but yesterday the Israelis announced that they would strike. That the Americans do not want an escalation and a direct war with Iran would be obvious, reasonable and logical, but one must be aware that the US is so weakened in the Middle East that it could decide to set the Middle East on fire by the Israelis in order not to have to leave a healthy area to the other side.
The Israelis claim to have intercepted 99% of the drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. The clamor about this is so great that doubts about these numbers games are very justified.
Whether Iran’s retaliatory strike was a success or not can be viewed from different angles.
The attack did not cause much damage, but Iran has shown that it is capable of reaching any target in Israel. Furthermore, the cost of defending against this attack was horrendous for Israel: Israeli Brigadier General Reem Aminoach put the cost of defending against this attack at USD 1.33 billion. With 400 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, this amounts to a cost of over 3.3 million per unit. This does not even include the cost of the defense efforts of the USA, Great Britain and Jordan, which supported Israel in its defense. The Israeli newspaper Ynet News also assumes that Iran did not even spend 10% of the costs of the attack.
This is an indication that a prolongation of the conflict would bankrupt the Israelis and that attacks with a large number of missiles would very quickly overwhelm the Israeli armed forces, as they would simply run out of ammunition. The Iranian Shahed drones cost around USD 20,000 each, if at all, and seem to be available in vast quantities.
The following link proves that Iran’s qualitative capabilities make the above launch rate appear to be what it is supposed to be – Israeli propaganda:
There are parallels here with the Ukraine conflict. It is not sustainable to shoot down cheap drones with missiles that cost millions.
Will Netanyahu achieve his goal?
For 30 years, Netanyahu’s old dream has been to go to war with Iran. Israel cannot do this alone; it needs the help of the USA. We analyzed this in our article “World war as the result of genocide?“.
As things stand today – and this may change again tomorrow – it appears that the USA has no interest in a direct war against Iran. Israel is too weak to conduct such a conflict with Iran on its own. We can only hope that the USA will not change its mind. But it is a fact today that the Israelis have announced that they will strike back. No one knows what will happen, but if it does, war between Israel and Iran will be a fact.
China
Industrial production
Ms. Yellen’s threats to China are grotesque. By complaining about cheap Chinese products, Janet Yellen is calling the free market economy into question; a core discipline that the USA has been committed to since its inception. When the USA produced 70% of all industrial goods after the Second World War and thus dominated the world industrially, industrial superiority was not a problem; now it is supposed to be.
The deindustrialization of the USA began with President Clinton, when the USA started to move production from the USA to China and also Mexico. It was believed that the USA could only dominate the world with its financial industry. Backward countries like China should manufacture products for their masters in the USA with sweat and low wages.
Over the last few decades, China has worked its way up to become the world’s leading exporter and its production efficiency sets standards that the West can no longer catch up with in a reasonable period of time. Whereas a few decades ago it was still low-tech, cheap products, the Chinese manufacture every product to a quality that is on a par with or superior to Western products – see the iPhone. Apple products would cost several times more if they were manufactured in the USA or Europe, if this were even possible, which is doubtful, as the West simply lacks the economic capacity and, above all, the qualified workforce.
Close relationship between China and Russia
China’s cooperation with Russia is so close that it is fair to speak of an economic, political and military alliance. Since 2022, the volume of trade between China and Russia has increased from USD 108 billion to over USD 240 billion, which surprised even the Chinese and Russians – and the trend is continuing.
In my opinion, Janet Yellen’s threat to China over cooperation with Russia demonstrates both the US foreign policy strategy of trying to undo its own mistakes at the expense of others and an almost boundless naivety.
Russia’s closeness to China is merely a consequence of American efforts to destroy Russia’s deepening relationship with Europe – and Germany in particular – which developed positively from 1991 onwards. This was done in terms of economic policy by ordering Brussels to isolate Russia from the EU, for example through the policy of prohibiting Ukraine from doing business with both the EU and Russia, which led to the Maidan and ultimately to the Ukraine conflict.
Although 70% of Russia is located in Asia, the Russians are Europeans – just take a look at Russian culture. It was ultimately American geopolitics that drove the Russians into the arms of the Chinese. The Chinese and Russians are neighbors with a long common border, which facilitates trade after border disputes and mistrust were diplomatically reduced in the 1990s.
Another plus is the compatibility of the respective economies: China as an industrial giant and Russia as a raw materials giant. Furthermore, these two giant empires share the common fate of being regarded by the USA as an adversary and now as an enemy.
Finally, both China and Russia seem to have a well-founded mistrust of the West that goes back much further than the Second World War. The Chinese were already considered inferior by the British and no means were spared to weaken China. Keyword: opium wars.
Overall assessment
The geopolitical thrust of the British and then the Americans has been the same for 120 years, and not just since Sir Harold Mackinder wrote his Heartland Theory. This strategy was continued in the 20th century by Zbigniew Brzesinski and today by George Friedman. Karl Eckstein has described these theories excellently in his article “Anglo-Saxon geopolitical strategy – unchanged for 120 years”.
In essence, and applied to today’s geopolitical situation, this Anglo-Saxon strategy has not changed: In order to maintain the supremacy of the USA, Russia must be prevented from joining forces with Germany; this is roughly how the American geostrategy can be summarized in one sentence.
The USA considers this strategy to be of existential importance. If Russia dominates Ukraine, the USA believes it will lose its dominance in the world. It doesn’t matter whether this is true or not. If the US believes this, it will be more dangerous.
Russia
For Russia, the prevention of NATO on its western border is also an existential issue. The Russians have been systematically lied to since 1990. Secretary of State James Baker’s statement in 1990 – “not one inch eastward” – turned out to be a lie and since the 1990s NATO, which is nothing more than a geopolitical vehicle of the USA, has expanded 1,600 km closer to Moscow in several steps. Ukraine was the red line that was crossed. Incidentally, this is not an assertion, but a fact, which UN Secretary-General Stoltenberg confirmed in September 2023 as follows
“The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn’t sign that.”
So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders.NATO SECRETARY GENERAL JENS STOLTENBERG, SEPTEMBER 7, 2023
The military superiority of the Russians, not only over the Ukrainians but also over NATO, is so obvious that even the USA is slowly beginning to admit it.
It can be assumed that Russia will achieve its military objectives in Ukraine within a reasonable period of time – probably before the end of this year. The Russians are keeping the details to themselves. In my opinion, at least Kharkov and Odessa will be added to the territories that have already belonged to Russia since September 2022: Lugansk, Donetsk, Saparosh and Kherson. It all looks as if peace will come after capitulation.
Russia – like the USA – will not deviate from its strategy.
China
The Americans’ great geopolitical opponent is China. Due to the above-mentioned headless policy of the West, China and Russia are becoming allies. This is becoming increasingly apparent. While relations after the border adjustments in the 1990s were primarily of an economic nature, cooperation is becoming ever closer and is about to become an all-encompassing partnership. Both countries are the leading members of BRICS and SCO.
An indication that the US is completely misjudging China’s strength and the quality of China’s relationship with Russia can be seen in Janet Yellen’s comments in Beijing last week. The US accounts for 15% of China’s total exports, China is economically stronger than the US in terms of purchasing power and, together with Russia and India, is a leading power in the BRICS-10. Yellen’s statement regarding China’s industrial production should therefore be interpreted as a sign of weakness.
China’s cooperation with Russia is advanced, efficient and led to a more than doubling of trade volumes between 2022 and 2023. China has no interest in complying with the wishes – or rather threats – of the US at Russia’s expense. China also signaled this unmistakably one day after Yellen’s departure when welcoming Sergei Lavrov in Beijing, which could not have been more amicable. Beijing therefore did not react aggressively to the threats from the US, but instead showed China’s stance unmistakably with pictures.
China and Russia will strengthen their alliance. All efforts by the US to change this – whether with promises or threats – will have no effect.
The aggressive stance of France and the UK with regard to Ukraine
An intervention by France and possibly the UK by officially sending their troops to Ukraine will not change the military situation in Ukraine. It will, however, have a corrosive effect on NATO, as unilateral action by NATO members indicates significant differences of opinion within the Alliance on how to proceed.
If France and/or the UK decide to take this fatal step, they will find themselves at war with Russia.
Peace conference in Switzerland – a hotel was rented
It seems that Switzerland has completely abandoned common sense.
Switzerland wants to invite over 100 countries – in close cooperation with President Selenski. Federal Councillor Amherd was late for a press briefing on the peace conference this week with the excuse that she was late because of a telephone conversation with Mr. Selenski. This can simply be left as it is and the assessment of this detail left to the two elephants in the room: Russia and China.
The Swiss organized a Versailles Peace Conference when, after the First World War, the winners negotiated between January 1919 and January 1920 without Germany’s participation and then presented a treaty to the Germans for signature. The significant difference is that in the Swiss model, the losers want to negotiate over the winners.
In mid-March, Maria Zhakarova commented on the peace conference planned by Switzerland as follows:
“All this makes Russia’s participation in the aforementioned ‘peace conference’ pointless, because it makes no difference whether it is held in one, two or five stages – its ultimate core, promoted by Kiev and its masters, does not change as a result.”MARIA ZAKHAROVA – 12. MÄRZ 2024
The Russian embassy in Switzerland was even clearer about Bürgenstock:
“The meeting in Burgenstock, without Russia’s presence, will likely result in yet another round of fruitless consultations that will be unable to yield any concrete results,”TASS – 10. APRIL 2024
These efforts by Switzerland will fail and Switzerland will further damage its already tarnished reputation.
Middle East – the USA is losing its power
The escalation in the Middle East can be stopped by the USA at any time. The USA, whose policy has always been opportunistic, has been losing power in the Middle East for over 40 years despite countless wars.
President Biden supports Israel on the one hand due to the fact that Israel represents the last power base of the USA in the Middle East and on the other hand due to election campaign calculations.
Israel’s behavior since 1948 has threatened its own existence. It cannot be ruled out that the Arab countries, together with Iran, will one day decide to solve the problem militarily. This would completely banish the USA from the Middle East.
Conclusion
All my fears, which I have been describing for months, have come true. There is no good news on any playing field of geopolitics and no sign that the overall situation has any chance of de-escalating in any place.
The greatest danger of escalation comes from the USA. It has a multiple problem: defeat against Russia (Mackinder), loss of influence in the Middle East (oil) and – in Janet Yellen’s own words – fear of China and its merger with Russia.
The economic consequences of this are already clear today: the basis of American power – the Petrodollar – is already sinking.
The elephant in the room that poses the greatest economic threat to the USA, however, is the organization that is ignored by the Western media: BRICS. Our blog has written countless articles about this giant, most recently a few weeks ago – “BRICS – the project of the century”. Anyone who does not see and correctly assess this elephant will be trampled by it, first in slow motion and then faster and faster.
With the collapse of the Petrodollar and the rise of BRICS, the USA is losing the financial basis of its world power and thus the indispensable foundation of its hegemony. However, the USA still has enough power to plunge the world into chaos and that is where the great danger lies, because the USA has no plan B. A plan B would be to turn away from the policy of destabilization (divide et impera) towards a policy of partnership. A hegemon, however, does not want partners, but rather subjects, otherwise it cannot live at the expense of others and that is ultimately the goal of every world power.
The Western media do much to inflame the mood. Instead of adopting a mediating stance, hatred is stirred up and open discussion is made impossible. Opinions are formed and anyone who holds a different opinion is treated with hostility – even in Switzerland.
I have not included the economic situation in my assessment and have only briefly mentioned it in this conclusion, as the article would otherwise have been even longer. I would just like to make the following brief comments: The world has never been so indebted; inflation is on the rise again and the financial markets (bonds, shares, real estate) have valuations that we will classify as deranged in the future. The economic collapse will come and bring misery to the West that we cannot even imagine.
People are always looking for comparisons in history in order to categorize the current situation and make it easier to understand. By comparing President Putin with Hitler – a grotesque comparison – people want to draw parallels with the Second World War, which is complete nonsense.
The behavior of the exponents is much better compared to the situation in 1914. As then, arrogance, wishful thinking, hatred and incompetence prevail. In their hubris, the political players in the West are not aware that they are actually paving the way to the next world war with their statements and actions – mosaic stone by mosaic stone. A collapse of the financial markets will lead to panic among the politicians and panic is the spark in the powder keg.