With the west slowly, but surely trying to figure a way out of the war in Ukraine while losing as little face as possible, the subplot is not that Ukraine will undoubtedly lose the war, but that NATO has not only failed militarily but has potentially left Russia in a stronger geopolitical position since the fall of the USSR.
It quite literally feels like yesterday that despite the fact Russian troops were amassing on the Ukraine border the majority of the world still felt that cooler heads would prevail and war would be avoided. Instead, the West threw the dice and poked the bear to such a degree that Putin was quite simply backed into a corner of having to invade.
Of course, in many respects, this initial invasion was in the face of it at least a failure for Russia, with not only the fall of Kiev not happening, but also the slew of support from the Russian-speaking east largely not materializing as Russia had expected.
How much of this was actually down to Russian failure, or indeed as we are now learning restraint is up for debate. Regardless though the West saw this as an opportunity to not just give Russia a bloody nose, but also potentially see the hallowed “regime change” that the West so adores.
An unprovoked war and other lies
The first and most pervasive myth of course was that this was a completely unprovoked war, which of course it was not. Not only had Russia stated on many occasions that Ukraine joining NATO would be a serious red line, but this was a point not only the US high brass knew to be true, but something Russia had even shown previously in both Georgia and Crimea.
And then there was also the Minsk Agreement which for all intents guaranteed Ukrainian safety, so long as it did not join any form of military alliance. In effect, not all that different from Western-leaning countries such as Finland, or Austria, but with the caveat that Russia got to save face.
And to those who say “But Ukraine is a sovereign state that should be able to do what it wants”. Yes, this should be true, but compare and contrast this with US policy in its “backyard” of the Americas, with it overthrowing left-wing governments in Guatemala, and Chile to name but two, as well as taking the world to the brink of nuclear holocaust quite simply because Cuba was not allowed to pick whom it aligned with – the reverse of what we are saying in Ukraine.
Why did the West want war?
With us since learning that peace could have been achieved not two months after the war had begun, only for Boris Johnson to persuade Zelensky to fight one has to ask what the motives of the West were. And for this, we have to look at the propaganda of the time.
Remember being told that Putin had cancer and only a limited time to live, or that Russian forces were useless and that the Ukrainians would not just vanquish them from their own territory, but also take back Crimea and maybe even march on Moscow? Well of course none of this has happened even slightly, which leads many to believe Western intentions were not only extremely misguided and false, but perhaps as we now see even bordering on what might be considered war crimes.
NATO Equipment + Ukrainian cannon fodder vs Russian Army
Of course, there was no one singular reason for the West supporting this war, but more so that it was many factors that combined to form the perfect storm. And part of this storm was and is not just the Military Industrial Complex of the US, but the whole Ponzi scheme that is the arming of NATO.
The West and the Americans in particular quite simply wanted to test their weapons against Russia, their biggest adversary. The US spends more than any other country in the world on its military, but with NATO never getting the chance to fight anyone decent much of it goes untested.
Thus Russia and Ukraine proved to be the perfect war game. The West could arm them to the teeth with the best equipment, which by itself would be enough to not only give it a good field test but defeat Russia at the same time. And the best part? No NATO troops need to die, just Ukrainians.
As history has now shown though, modern warfare has sadly not changed all that much from the old days, with top technology still not enough to deal with superior numbers and people ready to die for what they believe to be a just cause.
The Russian geopolitical victory
Perhaps the biggest bloody nose to the West though has been not only the Russian economic resurgence but also a serious global political reawakening, with it again in many respects taking over the mantle of the USSR as the bulwark against Western imperialism.
For example, the sanctions have proved not only to be a joke, but have led Russia to not only replace its former trade partners but actually grow economically as the US and EU slowly start to stare bankruptcy in the face.
It is the political side that is perhaps most interesting though, with Russia regularly pointing out the sheer hypocrisy of what the West says about Ukraine whilst acting abhorrently in other countries. This has been a huge strategic blunder, with most of the developing world seeing the war for what it is, a proxy between great powers, rather than the “good versus evil” that the West wants people to believe.
And while the West arguably pushed the war in order to solidify its camp in Cold War 2.0, it has arguably done the complete opposite, with western African countries such as Burkina Faso et al. once again seeing Russia as a true bulwark against an imperialist West (in this case led by France).
But of course, it is not just small African nations that have taken stands like this, but also for all intents the heavy hitters of BRICS and the like that are also calling bullshit on the whole affair. Countries are now essentially asking why Ukraine matters more than other countries.
And this is something perfectly exemplified by what is happening in Gaza right now. Putin has of course been charged for war crimes despite the fact he has relocated fewer children than Israel has killed in the last two months.
So, far from isolating Russia the West has now not only pushed it and others firmly into the bosom of China but have perhaps made the country stronger than it has been since the days of the Soviet Union.